Niinistö in first place by wide margin but Green’s Haavisto narrowly beats Centre Party veteran to the second round.

Sauli Niinistö

Nobody was surprised that Kokoomus’ Sauli Niinistö came first in Sunday night’s first round of the presidential election. The 2006 runner-up, who was predicted to romp home throughout the campaign, garnered 37 percent of the vote. He also managed get first place in almost every one of the fifteen voting districts. There were three exceptions.

Niinistö’s rival, Centre Party stalwart Paavo Väyrynen, took the north. Lapland put Väyrynen, himself from Lapland, in first place with 43 percent of the vote. The Oulu region also voted for Väyrynen, giving him 35.2 percent. In both areas, Niinistö was second and Haavisto third. Åland’s winner was the Swedish People’s Party’s Eva Biaudet who took 37 percent of the vote leaving Niinistö in third place after the former SDP Prime Minister Paavo Lipponen.

But in every other constituency Niinistö triumphed. For much of the evening, it looked like Paavo Väyrynen had managed to repeat his performance in the 1988 presidential election by coming second. He was predicted over eighteen percent of the vote at the beginning of the night. But as the results in southern Finland came in, the Green Party’s Pekka Haavisto caught-up with and narrowly overtook the former senior minister.

Haavisto was originally predicted to get just over 14 percent of the vote but he ultimately took 18.8 percent to Väyrynen’s 17.5. Where Väyrynen had strong support in the north, Haavisto’s votes were relatively evenly spread meaning he failed to win any parliamentary electoral district. He came second to Niinistö in six districts, all of them in southern Finland. Haavisto was third in another six parliamentary areas. However, in Satakunta, on the West coast, he was fourth behind True Finns’ Timo Soini. In Åland he was also fourth while in the Vaasa district he languished in sixth, behind Lipponen, Soini and Biaudet. Haavisto’s best result in a parliamentary district was in the Helsinki constituency where he took 34 percent to Niinisto’s 37 percent.

It was a relatively disappointing night for True Finns’ Timo Soini. He came fourth overall with 9.4 percent of the vote, a massive contrast with his party’s 19 percent at last year’s parliamentary election, in which he received more personal votes than any other candidate. Soini came fourth, and often a close fourth, in every district except Satakunta, where was third, and Swedish-speaking Åland, where he trailed in 7th, ahead only of the Christian Democrat candidate. Soini also managed to come third in Vantaa, a large city near Helsinki.

Fifth place went to the SDP’s Paavo Lipponen on 6.7 percent. He was fifth in most districts, rising above this only in Åland and Vaasa where he was third. The Left Alliance’s Paavo Arhinmäki was sixth with 5.5 percent, Eva Biaudet was seventh with 2.7 percent and the Christian Democrats’ Sari Essayah was last with 2.5 percent. For much of the evening, Biaudet was in last place but this changed when the results from southern Finland, where most Swedish-speakers live, began to be tallied.

With no candidate winning over half the vote, there will be second round on 5th February. The turnout in the first round was 72 percent, slightly down on the 2006 presidential poll.

Oulu Votes for Niinistö

Though Väyrynen carried the Oulu electoral district, the City of Oulu itself voted for Niinistö. He took 33.6 percent of the city’s vote to Väyrynen’s 23.4 percent. The Centre Party candidate only narrowly beat Pekka Haavisto, who was third with 22.8 percent. Soini was fourth, followed by Arhinmäki, Lipponen, Essayah, and finally Biaudet.

Niinistö also won neighbouring Kempele, but only 0.5 percent ahead of Väyrynen’s 32 percent. However, other close towns such Haukipudas, Tyrnava, Muhos, Oulunsalo and Kiiminki all voted for Väyrynen. In some small towns, Väyrynen wiped the floor with Niinistö, taking 64 percent in Yli-Ii to Niinistö’s 12. Soini came third in Yli-Ii and Raahe while Arhinmäki was fourth in Ii.

Bucking the Trend

The general trend in the election, and in most districts and municipalities, was for the top three to consist of the same people who were nation’s top three. But Åland aside, there were some glaring exceptions in mainland Finland. Soini came third in Satakunta and in most of its towns. In the same district, Haavisto was routinely fourth, often fifth and, in Jämijärvi, sixth.

The Vaasa constituency, which borders Oulu to the south, has also thrown up some atypical results, partly due to its relatively large Swedish-speaking minority. In most of the predominantly Finnish-speaking villages in the district, Soini took third place, including in the village of ‘Soini’ from which his surname may well derive. However, in the predominantly Swedish areas the voting was very different. Many of these areas put Biaudet, second from last nationwide, in strong first. For example, in Körsnäs, Biaudet took 46 percent and in Mustalahti she garnered forty percent. The SDP’s Paavo Lipponen was usually second in these places, Niinistö third, Väyrynen fourth and Haavisto fifth or lower. In some of these small Vaasa towns and villages, such as Alajärvi and Halsua, Sari Essayah, last nationwide, came fourth. Halsua also put Soini second after Väyrynen. However, the larger Swedish-influenced municipalities, such as Jakobstad and Kokkola, put Niinisto first.

Some of the towns in Uusimaa, where there is also a Swedish minority, placed Biaudet in third behind, in the case of Kauniainen, Niinistö and Haavisto

Rogue results in Lapland were not unheard of either. Kolari put the Left Alliance’s Paavo Arhinmäki in second behind Väyrynen. He was third in Kittilä (ahead of Haavisto) and fourth in Kemi. Soini was third in Kemimaa and Keminjärvi, amongst others.

The Result

Sauli Niinistö (KOK)             1,131,127    37 percent.
Pekka Haavisto (GREEN)            573,872    18.8 percent.
Paavo Väyrynen (CENTRE)        536,731    17.5 percent.
Timo Soini (TRUE FINNS)        287,405    9.4 percent.
Paavo Lipponen (SDP)            205,020    6.7 percent.
Paavo Arhinmäki (LEFT ALLIANCE)        167,359    5.5 percent.
Eva Biaudet (SWEDISH PEOPLE’S PARTY)    82,581    2.7 percent.
Sari Essayah (CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS)    75,755    2.5 percent.